China’s navy has more ships than the US. Does that matter?[Geoff Ziezulewiscz]

"Exactly if and when the increasing antagonism between United States and China will boil over into full-on conflict remains anybody’s guess.

But for now, one thing is as clear as the aqua-blue waters that lap up on the shores of China’s man-made islands in the South China Sea: Beijing’s naval fleet is larger than that of the U.S. Navy.

Citing the Office of Naval Intelligence, a Congressional Research Service report from March notes that the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, was slated to have 360 battle force ships by the end of 2020, dwarfing the U.S. fleet of 297 ships.

Such numbers are hard to pinpoint because the PLAN doesn’t release public reports on its future shipbuilding efforts like the U.S. Navy does. But according to the CRS, China is on pace to have 425 battle force ships by 2030. Sheer size and numbers carry a quality all their own, and a numerical advantage would be of benefit in a small battlespace like the Taiwan Strait, some China watchers say.

Still, others note that because the U.S. Navy has been doing this a lot longer than the growing Chinese force and is aided by the naval might of America’s allies in the region, the U.S. retains key advantages that extend beyond any mere hull tally.

The U.S. Navy also has vastly more experience with global maritime operations. China’s Navy has little or no proven capability for things like carrier aviation, blue-water deployments and underway replenishments — all of which would be necessary for the Chinese to project naval power beyond their coastal zones.

U.S. Marines take positions during an amphibious landing operation with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force at the Dawn Blitz 2015 exercise at Camp Pendleton, California, in September 2015. (Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)

What war with China could look like

A host of scenarios could push China and the United States into some kind of conflict.

Todd South, Philip Athey, Diana Stancy Correll, Stephen Losey, Geoff Ziezulewicz, Meghann Myers, Howard Altman

Beijing’s fleet size is a cause for concern, but not of panic, according to James Holmes, the J.C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College..... " 

[Military Times] 

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